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Deciphering Bitcoin’s NVT Ratio: Unravelling Its Current Critical Level

Breaking Down the Implications of Bitcoin's Overheated Market Signaled by NVT Golden Cross Surpassing Critical Levels

Mark Valerius by Mark Valerius
February 3, 2025
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Key Points

  • Bitcoin’s value has decreased by 6.54% in the last 24 hours, possibly due to an overheated market.
  • Despite this drop, other indicators suggest a potential rebound led by long-term holders and whales.

Bitcoin’s value has seen a significant decrease of 6.54% within the last 24 hours.

This drop in the market could be a sign of overheating, although other indicators suggest a potential rebound might be on the horizon.

Impact of Trade Wars on Bitcoin

The crypto market has been severely affected by escalating trade wars led by Trump in North America.

Bitcoin, in particular, has been hit hard, dropping to a low of $91k – a first since 2025.

This recent market crash has sparked discussions about Bitcoin’s future direction.

Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross

CryptoQuant’s NVT Golden Cross indicates that Bitcoin’s market is currently overheated and at risk of a market bubble.

The Golden Cross has spiked to current levels, settling at 2, suggesting an attempted takeover by bears.

A Golden Cross at this level signals potential sustained downward pressure, a phenomenon that has been observed as American investors become increasingly bearish.

Despite the alarming recent price action, key indicators suggest that regions outside the U.S. remain optimistic.

This suggests that the recent correction could be a short-term drop before the market recovers.

For instance, Bitcoin whales are still bullish and continue to keep their assets off exchanges, resulting in a 10-day low in the Exchange Whale Ratio.

This indicates that whales anticipate a price rebound and are not selling their Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s VDD Multiple remains above 1, settling at 1.05 at the time of writing.

If this stays above 1, it suggests that long-term holders are not panic selling, indicating market stability.

The current drop is largely driven by short-term holders, but with long-term holders still bullish, the market could recover soon.

In summary, although Bitcoin has seen a decrease in value over the past few days due to a bearish North American market, other indicators suggest that the drop is led by short-term holders.

Long-term holders and whales remaining bullish suggest that the market is likely to rebound.

This rebound could see Bitcoin reclaim $96,370 and attempt to reach $98,000, although further correction could lead to a dip to $92,103.

Tags: Bitcoin (BTC)

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Bitcoin (BTC)
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