Key Points
- Bitcoin’s price is correlating with global liquidity trends, hinting at a potential hike to $105k.
- Bitcoin’s realized cap growth and technical indicators show crucial resistance and support zones.
Bitcoin [BTC] is currently navigating through key resistance levels, with an increase in liquidity prompting speculation of a potential rally towards $105k. The rise in BTC’s realized cap and the correlation of its price movement with global money supply trends has traders wondering if the momentum can sustain a breakout.
Liquidity Injections and Bitcoin’s Price Surge
Bitcoin’s price has been reflecting global liquidity trends, with recent injections sparking speculation of a possible hike to $105k. Historical data shows a strong correlation between BTC’s price and the global M2 money supply, indicating significant market movements. The latest data is suggesting a possible renewed uptrend.
When liquidity increases, BTC’s price tends to follow. Recent data shows an uptick in liquidity coinciding with a bounce in Bitcoin’s price from its recent lows near $75k. This indicates that Bitcoin’s price has rebounded exactly when global liquidity showed a sharp recovery. If this trend continues, the cryptocurrency could benefit from additional capital inflows, providing the necessary fuel for a rally towards $105k. However, there are still resistance zones that must be cleared before such a breakout can occur.
Bitcoin’s Realized Cap and Market Confidence
Another factor supporting a bullish case for Bitcoin is its realized cap, which has been steadily increasing. The realized cap represents the total value of all BTC coins at their last transaction price and often serves as an indicator of investor sentiment and network strength. According to Glassnode, BTC’s realized cap has been rising, indicating that capital is still entering the market despite short-term price fluctuations. If this trend continues, it could provide a solid foundation for BTC to push past key resistance levels.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s price action, the first major resistance level is the 50-day moving average [MA] which sat at $88,926 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the 200-day MA at $96,392 represents a key barrier BTC must break to confirm a sustained rally. On the downside, BTC has found immediate support around the $80K-$81K range, making this a crucial zone for traders to monitor. A breakdown below this level could invalidate the bullish scenario, potentially leading to a retest of the $75k support.
For Bitcoin to reach $105k, two major factors must align: sustained liquidity injections and breaking key resistance levels. If the global M2 money supply keeps increasing, it could drive more capital into BTC. Additionally, BTC needs to reclaim $88k and $96k, with strong volume to confirm a bullish breakout. While the current setup looks promising, Bitcoin still faces hurdles before confirming a push to new highs. If liquidity conditions remain favorable, BTC’s uptrend could accelerate. However, traders should remain cautious of any sudden shifts in macroeconomic trends that could impact liquidity inflows.
