XRP (XRP/USD) appears to be losing upward momentum after its recent corrective bounce encountered strong resistance around the $3.20 level, suggesting that the underlying bearish trend may be preparing to reassert itself.
The cryptocurrency has struggled to sustain gains above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3.0686, indicating that sellers remain in control despite the temporary relief rally from lower levels. Recent price action reveals a classic corrective pattern following the sharp decline from the $3.37 highs, with XRP currently trading around $3.1251 and showing signs of exhaustion.
The Fibonacci extension tool highlights several concerning downside targets that could come into play should the current weakness persist, with the 50% level at $2.9856 representing the immediate area of concern for bulls attempting to defend the recent bounce.
Renewed Trend Weakness
The moving average structure continues to favor the bears, as both the shorter and longer-term averages are trending lower and acting as dynamic resistance on any upward attempts. XRP remains trapped below these key technical levels, reinforcing the notion that any rallies are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities rather than the beginning of a meaningful recovery.
The MACD configuration presents a particularly bearish picture, with the histogram showing diminishing bullish momentum and the signal lines preparing for what could be another bearish crossover. This technical development typically coincides with renewed selling pressure and suggests that the recent bounce may have been nothing more than a dead cat bounce within the broader downtrend.
Stochastic readings have reached the upper end of their range during the recent rally, indicating that XRP may be approaching overbought conditions on a short-term basis. This positioning often leads to renewed selling pressure, particularly when the underlying trend remains negative. The oscillator appears poised to turn lower, which would align with the broader bearish narrative and support expectations for further downside.
The failure to establish a higher high above the previous resistance levels suggests that buying interest remains limited at current prices, with market participants likely waiting for more attractive entry points at lower levels.
Bearish XRP Roadmap
Should XRP fail to hold above the critical $3.00 psychological support level, the Fibonacci extension analysis points to several concerning downside targets that could attract selling pressure. The 61.8% extension level at $2.9027 represents the next major support zone, while a more severe breakdown could target the 76.4% level at $2.8001.
The most pessimistic scenario would see XRP declining toward the 100% Fibonacci extension at $2.6343, which would represent a significant retest of previous major support levels. Such a move would likely require sustained selling pressure and could coincide with broader cryptocurrency market weakness.
From a risk management perspective, traders should monitor the $3.00 level closely, as a decisive break below this psychological support could trigger accelerated selling and bring the lower Fibonacci targets into immediate focus.
Conversely, any unexpected strength that drives XRP back above the $3.20 resistance could temporarily delay the bearish scenario, though the overall technical structure would likely remain negative until more substantial resistance levels are reclaimed.
