Ethereum (ETH) continues to navigate a challenging market environment, currently trading at $1,635.77 against the US Dollar. After a significant downtrend from its previous highs above $2,400, ETH has been showing signs of stabilization within a descending trend line.
Key Levels to Watch
The ETHUSD pair is currently trading between several critical Fibonacci retracement levels. The 0% Fibonacci level at $1,395.81 has established itself as a solid support zone, successfully holding during the early April selloff.
On the upside, ETH faces immediate resistance at the 38.2% retracement level ($1,671.54), followed by the psychologically important 50% level at $1,756.74.
The descending trend line visible on the chart remains the dominant technical pattern, with the upper boundary currently converging with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1,841.92. This confluence of resistance creates a significant barrier for ETH bulls to overcome. A clean break above this zone would be needed to invalidate the bearish structure.
Further resistance can be seen at the 100% Fibonacci level of $2,117.68, which coincides with the upper resistance trendline from January’s decline. For support, traders should closely monitor the lower boundary near $1,400, which has already demonstrated its significance as a demand zone.
Technical Indicators Analysis
The Stochastic oscillator (14, 3, 3) is currently hovering in the upper half of its range, suggesting moderate bullish momentum in the short term. However, it has not yet reached overbought territory, indicating potential room for further upside before a correction becomes likely.
The MACD (12, 26, close) is showing tentative signs of improvement with the histogram bars turning green in recent sessions and the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This crossover suggests building bullish momentum, though the overall MACD remains below the zero line, indicating that bears still maintain overall control of the medium-term trend.
The 200-day moving average (blue line) continues to slope downward and is positioned above the current price around the $2,000 level, confirming the prevailing bearish bias in the longer-term perspective. The price remains trapped below this critical moving average, which historically serves as a dividing line between bull and bear markets.
Price Outlook
Ethereum appears to be forming a potential base above the $1,400 support zone, with price action showing consolidation in the $1,600 range. The recent higher lows since the April 6th bottom suggest diminishing selling pressure and potential accumulation.
In the immediate term, ETH must overcome the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at $1,671 to generate momentum toward the 50% retracement level at $1,756. A successful break above this zone could accelerate gains toward the upper channel resistance and the critical 61.8% Fibonacci level at $1,841.92.
Conversely, if bearish pressure returns, initial support exists at the current local bottom around $1,550, followed by the stronger 0% Fibonacci support at $1,395.81. A breakdown below this level would likely trigger a deeper correction, potentially testing the next support zones around $1,300.
The overall technical structure suggests ETH is attempting to carve out a bottom, but remains in a precarious position. The convergence of the falling trend line with key Fibonacci levels creates a clear roadmap for traders.
Breaking above the trend line would be considered a potential reversal, while failure to overcome these barriers could result in continued consolidation or renewed downside pressure. With both MACD and Stochastic showing early signs of improvement, cautious optimism may be warranted for Ethereum in the near term.
