Dogecoin has retreated significantly after staging an impressive rally to the $0.25 level in early May, with the popular meme cryptocurrency now trading at around $0.22.
This pullback has brought DOGE to a critical juncture, as it currently hovers around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.22, suggesting that bulls are attempting to defend this zone after the recent correction.
Dogecoin Rally
The price action shows a clear parabolic move that occurred in early May, with Dogecoin breaking out from a consolidation pattern that had been forming since late April.
This explosive upward movement saw Dogecoin nearly double in value before hitting resistance at the $0.26 mark, where profit-taking took place. Since reaching this peak, Dogecoin has been forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers have gained the upper hand in the short term.
What’s particularly notable is that despite the correction, Dogecoin remains well above the longer-term ascending trendline that has supported the price since early April. This trendline, coupled with the 100% Fibonacci level at $0.16, represents a significant support zone that bulls would need to defend to maintain the overall uptrend.
The horizontal support levels marked by the Fibonacci retracement tool at 50% ($0.21) and 61.8% ($0.20) near the major psychological support at $0.2000 will likely be crucial in determining whether this is merely a healthy correction or the beginning of a deeper retracement.
Continued Consolidation Signals
The moving average configuration shows the blue 100 SMA positioned above the red 200 SMA, confirming that the longer-term trend still favors the bulls. Both moving averages are sloping upward, which typically signals a healthy uptrend. However, the price has retreated below the blue MA, suggesting short-term weakness that could persist until price finds stronger support.
The stochastic oscillator has moved lower from the overbought territory and now appears to be approaching oversold levels, indicating that downside momentum may be losing steam. This could potentially set up a bullish divergence if the price stabilizes while the stochastic forms higher lows. Traders should watch for the stochastic to turn upward from the current levels, as this might signal a resumption of bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, the MACD indicator displayed in the middle panel shows a bearish crossover, with the blue line dropping below the orange signal line and the histogram bars turning negative. This suggests the bearish momentum is still in control for the short term, although the diminishing size of the most recent red bars might indicate that selling pressure is beginning to ease.
For traders looking to capitalize on Dogecoin’s next move, the key levels to watch are the Fibonacci retracement zones. If the current 38.2% level fails to hold, the next support comes in at the 50% retracement ($0.21), followed by the 61.8% level close to the $0.20 major psychological support and area of interest.