Bitcoin has experienced a significant correction from its recent peak, confirming the bearish outlook suggested by the double top formation and neckline break in late February. Price action has since declined substantially, currently trading around $83,099 as it tests critical support levels that could determine the next major move.
Key Price Levels to Watch
The current price at $83,099 marks a substantial pullback from the December 2024 highs of approximately $109,800. Bitcoin is now testing the long-term rising trend line which appears to be providing support for the time being. This level coincides with an area of interest or former resistance zone that could now hold as support, forming a critical juncture for BTCUSD.
Looking at potential resistance levels from the Fibonacci retracement, we can identify several key zones:
- The 0.382 Fibonacci level at $98,715
- The 0.5 Fibonacci level at $105,662
- The 0.618 Fibonacci level at $112,610
- The 0.764 Fibonacci level at $121,206
These levels will likely act as significant barriers should Bitcoin attempt to recover from current prices.
Chart Patterns and Trends
The formation of a double top pattern near all-time highs and the subsequent break below the neckline at approximately $93,500 has confirmed a bearish reversal. This pattern typically suggests that selling pressure has overwhelmed buying interest, leading to a shift in market sentiment.
The current price action suggests that Bitcoin may be undergoing a corrective pullback to retest previous support levels that could now act as resistance. Particularly, the broken neckline around $93,500 will be a key level to watch if price begins to climb.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
The chart shows that the 100-period moving average (blue line) remains above the 200-period moving average (red line), which traditionally signals an underlying bullish bias. However, the gap between these two indicators has narrowed significantly, suggesting a potential bearish crossover may be imminent.
The price has fallen below both moving averages, indicating that near-term momentum has shifted to the downside. The 100 MA around the $98,000 level now represents a significant dynamic resistance zone that bulls would need to overcome to regain control.
The MACD (12, 26, close) shows declining momentum, with the MACD line below the signal line and approaching the zero line. This configuration typically confirms the bearish sentiment in the market. A potential crossover back above the signal line would be an early indication of renewed bullish momentum.
The Stochastic oscillator (14,3,3) is currently in the lower region of its range, suggesting oversold conditions may be developing. This could indicate a potential short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish until more convincing bullish signals emerge.
BTCUSD Price Outlook
Bitcoin appears to be in a corrective phase following its impressive rally into late 2024. While the longer-term uptrend remains intact as evidenced by the rising trend line from mid-2023, the short to medium-term outlook leans bearish.
For traders, the $76,224 support level is crucial. A decisive break below this level could accelerate selling pressure toward the March lows and potentially challenge the longer-term uptrend. Conversely, a strong bounce from current levels could target the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $98,715, with the broken neckline around $93,500 serving as an intermediate resistance.
The fundamental backdrop remains cautiously optimistic with expectations of crypto-friendly policies under the Trump administration, including discussions about a “strategic crypto reserve.” However, recent disappointment from the Digital Asset Summit in New York has contributed to the unwinding of bullish positions, suggesting that concrete policy developments will be necessary to reignite the uptrend.
