Fili-busted

So the “nuclear option” debate is over (for now). The conservatives are crying foul and the Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief. Which is very strange, since this is as much a compromise as a mugger deciding at last the minute not to take your life along with your wallet is a compromise. The Democrats have agreed to accept three of the most right-wing judges and to suspend filibusters for judicial nominees except in “extreme circumstances.” And who defines what extreme circumstances are? The moderate Republicans, that’s who. So what we have is a slow death by asphyxiation for the filibuster rather than a bullet to the head.

I don’t blame the Democrats for taking this deal – what else were they supposed to do? The mugging victim is just glad to be alive. He doesn’t complain much about his wallet. No, the people I hold responsible are the “moderate” Republicans who knew how extreme, hypocritical, and indefensible the nuclear option was, but who were so afraid of the religious right that they largely went along anyway. So don’t talk to me about heroism – heroes would have opposed this policy in the first place.

So who “won” the politics of this fiasco? Politically the Democrats perhaps got a mild advantage going into the next election, since this whole debate did convey the message of Republicans as loonies. But the real effects will be felt in the 2008 Presidential race. Bill Frist couldn’t deliver the goods, so he’s probably dead. And John McCain has further alienated the James Dobson wing of the Republican party, so he’s probably out of it in 4 years too. In fact, I think all of the Republican Senators are going to suffer for this. The theocons are not happy.

And the real winner is…Jeb Bush. He is in no way implicated in this apparent setback for the religious right, while many of his rivals have been seriously undermined. Oy.

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3 Responses to “Fili-busted”

1. 1
   LaryE Says:
   

   I really think looking to effects on the 2008 presidential race is overreaching. Yes, memories, especially among such s the “religious” right, are long, but it’s still two years and maybe even a little more before things get really serious, which can be a lifetime in politics – especially since Frist can still go to his backers and say “hey, we got three and probably more and we can still pull the trigger anytime we want to, if need be. Why fire a weapon and so use it up when you’re getting what you want just by brandishing it?”

   Beyond that, I agree that this “compromise” is “slow asphyxiation” for the filibuster – in fact, I’d go beyond that to say it’s a death knell: Despite all the studiously parsed language about Senators’ “consciences,” the net effect is that these “moderate” (it shows how far things have moved that John McCain is apparently too “moderate” to be called a “conservative”) Republicans have said to the Democrats “you can filibuster whenever we decide it’s okay” and the Democrats have swallowed it whole.

   “What else were they supposed to do?” They were supposed to say no. Might Frist have pulled the trigger? Yes. But the effective outcome here is not much different and Frist can still detonate the bomb – as he himself has noted – anytime a sufficient number of “moderate” Republicans think that Democrats are “not living up to their part of the bargain.”

   Finally, one last observation: An AP story said the nulear option “threatened the comity the Senate needs to function.” I think in our discussions of the whole affair we have tended to overlook how important it is to Senators to maintain that atmosphere, or at least the pretense, of collegial courtesy. I think that had a lot more to do with producing this “compromise” than any other single factor.

   May 24th, 2005 at 7:38 am
2. 2
   JackD Says:
   

   Gotta agree with the comment above. What does anyone think will be Frist’s move when a Supreme Court vacancy is at issue? It will be that the Democrat’s are acting in bad faith and the deal is off.

   May 24th, 2005 at 4:23 pm
3. 3
   PubliusToo Says:
   

   Who won? Who cares?! Hardly another Profile in Courage, this “compromise” merely postpones the day of reckoning. What the Senate really needed was 67 Senators with enough courage premanently to prevent dishonest rule changes by a mere majority vote. Changing unequivocal rules on a point of order is dishonest and disrespectful of the rule of law, so to speak. What’s next? A ruling that the Senate has never (or only once or twice) “filibustered” tax cut bills, so the debate on any tax cut bills can be ended by a mere 51 votes.

   Lyndon Johnson once compared being a member of the Senate and the House as the difference between chicken and chicken shit. It seems that the Senate has largely bridged that gap. These days, the more appropriate comparison between the House and the Senate would be the difference between chicken shit and bullshit.

   May 27th, 2005 at 10:00 am

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