Lots of people seem baffled by Ron Paul’s fundraising prowess. The answer seems obvious to me: an imploding GOP has assembled the most bizarre slate of presidential candidates in history, and Paul is the chief financial beneficiary. And he isn’t only drawing from disaffected Republicans: his base includes aggravated Republican-leaning independents, Libertarians and Larouchites, the exaggerated but nevertheless real pool of “a pox on both their houses” voters, and Democrats willing to overlook his extreme conservatism in favor of an anti-Iraq occupation message more strident than some of their own candidates can muster. Those constituencies don’t have much clout in the polls, but they can assemble some serious scratch when they’re all pulling for the same guy. Obviously.
The starting point for his success is the contrast between him and the GOP national frontrunners, who include the transparently corrupt Rudy Giuliani, historically an abortion-loving, gun-hating, gay-friendly cross dresser, and Mitt Romney, whose recent and vocal conversion to social conservatism is also belied by his record. John McCain, beloved of the press, has the opposite problem from those two: he almost invariably votes the doctrinaire Republican line but loudly opposes himself, and hence the Republican center, as he does so. Fred Thompson is clearly resentful at having to audition for a role he thinks should have been offered to him outright.
The most currently enthusiastic GOP candidate, Mike Huckabee, has the urban sophisticate wing of his party in an absolute panic. Their motto where right-wing Christians are concerned is “pander, but don’t empower.” They’re appalled by his policy naïveté and his ignorance on matters of science, qualities that they admire in GOP voters but prefer their candidates, if they possess them, to tone down. They’re afraid he’ll use the wrong fork or ask them to hold hands during the pre-meal Grace at a White House dinner for a Muslim head of state.
Paul, though, is viewed by nearly everyone as completely sincere, an impression that being the lone anti-occupation candidate among Republicans can’t help but reinforce. He’s seen by most Americans and a small but stable minority of Republicans as being right on the issue, Iraq, that Republicans use to marginalize him. And he’s clearly smarter than Huckabee.
The other Republican fringe candidates include single-issue guys such as Tom Tancredo, who, unlike Paul on Iraq, can’t really distinguish himself from the crowd. They’re all tough on illegal immigration; Tancredo is just more so. For the most part, again unlike Paul, they’ve cheerfully participated in the drunken sailor Republican spending spree of the past several years, making their claims of fiscal responsibility ring hollow.
So there’s no real mystery whence Paul’s success springs, or why it hasn’t translated into support in the polls. The more interesting question, only now beginning to pop up in the press, is what he’ll do with all that cash once the primaries are over. His campaign says he plans to stay in until the end, and they’re busy hiring new staff and buying more air time, but he won’t be burning through $20 million in the next six or eight weeks and he’ll be sitting on a pretty big pile when he finally pulls the plug.
Any thoughts? Will he attempt a third-party run, or use the money to influence the GOP platform? What do you think?
Assuming he doesn’t win the Republican nod which I think is more likely than most people, he will likely continue on with his original albeit lonely goal of bringing true conservative issues into play.
He won’t be spending the money campaigning? That’s a surprise.
If he does, then it seems likely that his poll numbers really will shoot up as his prior rise was without advertising. Given such an upshot, he’ll become the front-runner after the early primaries.
What do I think? I think Ron Paul is our next President.
If Ron Paul wants to run as an independent or 3rd party, he should announce it now – not after the primaries begin. When you run for a party’s nomination you kind of have an obligation to support its eventual nominee or, at least, not campaign against him/her. Since he is not likely to change before NH, his supporters ought to register Republican now rather than wait for an independent run that might not occur. Of course, he could donate his campaign funds to the Libertarian party if he doesn’t win.
If we look at the accuracy of past polls they seldom tell the story.
Your statement “Those constituencies don’t have much clout in the polls, but they can assemble some serious scratch when they’re all pulling for the same guy” is absolutely spot on.
Your article of the Ron Paul campaign is thoughtful and very astute, something that we seldom see in the Main Stream media.
I suspect many Ron Paul supporters see no reason why or how Paul could “Pull the plug” as you say, the battle has just begun for for Paul supporters. I presume most disdain the idea at this time and would prefer to focus on the task at hand of getting Paul elected.
If Paul does not get the nomination I am betting (any takers) that most Paul supporters will not vote for any of the current Republicans. Paul could easily take his supporters with him to the Independent status, but will he need too? maybe not…
Bkusz
Lbts, Fla.
Paul has always returned unused campaign money, and he’ll probably do just that.
Meanwhile, if we get any of the nutcases (which includes the entire lot of the Republicans plus Clinton and Obama) the nation is finished as we know it. They’re all eager to start a war in Iran, and that will be the demise of our empire since Iran hasn’t been under sanctions for a decade like Iraq was – and we can all see just how well Iraq is going.
People just do not comprehend how seriously screwed up the nation is at this point and what sort of cliff we’re hanging off from. I hope the people that are spending ample time misrepresenting the views of the only sane candidates (Paul and Gravel) appreciate what sort of country they helped make by the time 2012 rolls around.
People still think these two candidates are just a joke – they’re our last hope and Gravel has already been eliminated by the media.
I agree with Al. I don’t think most Paul supporters agree with him on every issue, particularly with specific proposals, but more with the general ideas. Like greater fidelity to the constitution, less federal and more state responsibility for whatever social programs people want, and greater assertion of national sovereignty from border control to international agreements. I believe his foreign policy stand is the most attractive to supporters; the idea that the U.S. should lead by example not by force, which, in any case, we can no longer afford. These are traditional American ideas which seem to have changed most in the last 60 years since the U.S. assumed the corrupting role of “superpower.”
Thanks for all the comments. I don’t see how Paul can possibly win the GOP nomination, given that something like 90% of Republicans oppose his position on the occupation.
I’d guess he’ll raise another $10 million, possibly more, before he’s done. Maybe he really will spend it all, but I think he’ll come out of the primaries with at least $5 million.
Wheldon, remember the polls seldom tell us anything and with this race so close..
Money well spent and a diverse group of supporters Ron Paul is a contender and he certainly has the right message.
I would hpe that Ron Paul will run as an independant or as a 3rd party. It seems as if his views would take votes away equally from both parties – he’s liberal socially, and conservative fiscally, and would get us out of a war, that I think, most American’s see for what it is at this time … pointless to continue, simply an arguement over the various degrees of “success”, but worth neither the lives nor the money.
I disagree with Weldon Berger about “90% of Republicans oppose his position on the occupation”. Only the Republican base is at odds with Paul’s stance on Iraq, and the base does not make up 90% of the party. They are actually the minority. I think that Paul has a chance to win the nomination. If he does win then he will most likely beat any Democrat since gun control is still a big issue as well as amnesty for illegal aliens. The polls mean nothing and this has been proven many times in the past. It will interesting to see how well Paul does.
most of the phone polls go out to republicans who voted in the last election and people forget only 30% of the voting population did vote last election. So what you get is a bunch of ex bush supporters getting phone calls YouTube videos have shown some of these phone polls and Paul’s name is not even mentioned. As a Canadian watching this I predict Paul will do as well as he has down in the straw polls…he is also peaking at the right time and his supporters will be out in force on primary day…I can’t say the same for the rest of the pack
It may just turn out that more and more people of all political stripes, including especially a majority of traditional Republicans, will come to realize that the only possibility for a defeat of the Democrat’s eventual nominee rest with nominating Dr. Paul for the GOP. Republicans are, if nothing else, consummate survivors.
I think he’s going to work within the Republican party for change. He knows that independents aren’t taken seriously. He’ll try to influence the Republican platform. It’s high time that one of the major parties stood for what people actually want. Vote for him!
I don’t think it’s right to be so quick in assuming Ron Paul will not get the nomination. He would certainly not run as a third party candidate, so I think everyone should just stop beating that dead horse. Paul himself has said that the system is too stacked against a third party candidate, especially when that candidate has gone through another party’s primary process – some states will not allow you on the ballot. It would be futile. It’s also very annoying to have it brought up all the time. We haven’t even had a caucus yet, people!
America has lost her way and has become nothing more than a whore. She is diseased from bedding down with ALL foreign nations. Her politicians have sold their souls to corporations for the almighty dollar, their true god. GOD is just a cheap word used to pander votes. Smooth talk, deceit, deception has become the norm. We as a nation are being sold into slavery by our elected officials. Truth is unknown to us, and then there is Ron Paul. He opened my eyes, has shown me that America (the current Roman Empire) will not stand on its current path but also that it is not too late to restore the country to the glory the founders envisioned.
Perhaps our last chance. Former democrat voting for Ron Paul.
Everyone says this race is very close. I live in South Carolina – none of the candidates are much over 20% – Paul could easily get 2nd or 3rd here.
In Iowa, assuming his passionate supporters(like me) go and caucus- he can get 3rd beating McCain and Thompson- which makes him very viable going into New Hampshire. Then the talk about him not being able to win rings more hollow.
All he needs after Iowa is more face time with the MSM and the public to get more name recognition. And then a very good debate performance in late January and who knows he could get some real momentum , raise lots more money , buy a couple of Super Bowl ads, have the blimp flying over, and actually win the horse race.
He has the money , the message, and a very loyal following and his trend is upward.
You are right about the “freak show”.
I plan to vote for someone I can TRUST. A man who has been faithfully married to 1 wife for decades, who is a baby doctor, and who has a consistent political record is the only one I trust! The fact that he is wise, upholds the Constitution, and is an expert in foreign policy and economics are additional strong reasons to support him. That’s why I’ll vote for Ron Paul 2008.
If followers of his campaign are as devoted as I, and my fellow (Reps, Dems, Conservs, Libs, and Libers) are then I feel sorry for the people in congress.
low poll number is a fabrication of the neocon msm. they already keeping artificially low his poll number all year long as a back up for the cheating diebold voting machine. so when they will stiill his votes than they are able to mislead the ignorant people sorry but he had no way of winning he was all year long single digits. nice plan but we are not STUPID and if you will carry out the cheat with the diebold voting machine, you neocons will see a real revolution all over in america watch my words. peace
Ron Paul is in the perfect position. Even though the media tries to attack him and distort his views, he has maintained his composure and people are starting to see that he is an honest, genuine guy who wants to fix the things wrong with our country. He is going to surprise everyone and win Iowa and NH. I just can’t wait to see how they try to spin it.
Ron Paul is the front runner so therefore he will win hands down.So far he has won all the debates and most of the straw polls.His hits on the net equal Obama and Hillary combined.Also look at the crowd$ that $upport him..and this is just the beginning.
I agree with Lazlo Horvath. The low poll numbers of Paul’s are either fabricated to realistically rig the Primary elections so they reflect the polls, or they are really trying hard to sway voters from believing Paul has a chance. The only way to prevent and scare the neocons from rigging the elections, isto have every Ron Paul voter wear a ron paul t-shirt when they vote, or have them vote in exit polls. i think paul will win by a landslide obviosly so it will be hard to rig the election
Ron Paul is the only one who has been steadily trending upwards the entire time.
He is in it to win and it’s looking like a very real possibility.
There is cause for hope for Paul to win the GOP nomination. But, even at this date 12/19, he’s still building name recognition, as Rudy, Fred, and Mitten crash in the pollz, the lame stream tries to boost the shark jumper Mccain, and Huck begins his inevitable fade. But only Paul can generate 5-11 million per month for the general election in or outside the Gop. Paul is the historical candidate. His message must get carried forward as the Gop nominee or as a 3rd party. The country does not have the luxury to wait around for another election cycle. Let the message of Liberty and Freedom widely disseminate or we are finished as a beacon of hope for our children and the world.
The money shows he’s got the support to have a good shot at winning the nomination no matter what the polls say. The biggest point is going to be everyone that supports him getting out and actually voting. The problems the other candidates have is their “supporters” aren’t passionate about their candidate and a good rain or snow storm will knock down the number that get out and vote for them. Paul hasn’t said 100% he won’t run 3rd party but he has said 99% so I doubt that it’s really an option, only leaving the door open just enough in case something strange happens. As for me I don’t care if he actually wins the nod or not…I’LL STILL WRITE HIM IN. You can call it “throwing away a vote” but I call it “making the right choice” no matter who the party chooses. JMHO
I haven’t shared my secret hope before, but I will now. There is a famous and VERY popular writer, F. Paul Wilson. Mr. Wilson wrote a novel in 1984 (how prophetic) called “An Enemy of the State” in which he visualized the current state of affairs in America. In his book, there was a utterly pricipled person called Peter LaNague who took on the corrupt establishment and went on to forge an alliance which was the foundation of freedom for humanity for the next thousand years. After I read the book I was heartbroken there was no Peter LaNague for me and mine. I set out to make money using the existing system to keep my family safe. Now some years later I am financially “safe” I guess – I have a million or so in property and a really good job so I won’t starve tomorrow. I feel that Dr. Paul is a REAL Peter LaNague. I think for a living – I write software and critical thinking skills are essential. When I first heard of Dr. Paul I was so MAD!!! I thought he was just a shill for the government – until I started looking through the Federal Register online. He has NEVER (that I can tell) voted against his principles. A rational person does not believe things he has been given evidence do not exist – but Dr. Paul has NEVER given reason to believe he will not do as he says. Please- do yourself a favor – read “An Enemy of the State” and acquaint yourself with the general priciples of sound money. I’m willing to give up my million of real estate to know my children will be secure – why else earn it?
Normally 8 percent of register voters will vote on Primary. 90% Ron Paul supporters said they will vote on Primary. Thats 90% of supporters from Democrate, independent and republican. Ron Paul will easily win Iowa and New Hampshire. Ron Paul has also won almost all straw polls across the nation. when he wins first Primary, his support will increase exponentially and you’ll see the biggest landslide win of presidential election in US history. ps. Ron Paul will probably raise 40 million for next quarter easily.
I think these modern-day “numerologists” (the pollsters and the sheep who follow their medieval science) are giving us quite a laugh. Just like In the old days, the public is led around by the shamans who promote the magic of numbers to divine the future. What’s next–interpreting the entrails of animals, counting geese?
Polling may work on issues where there are clear questions and direct answers. It isn’t very effective in predicting elections, especially where many variables are discounted. In the case of Ron Paul, whose candidacy cuts across many domains in the new and old electorate, polling is almost useless (primarily because the pollsters exlude so much potential data).
Paul’s fate will rest on the level of splintering in the Republican Party (which is great), the level of fervor of supporters (which is great), the climate (unknown), the ability to reach the “mainstream” (unknown as of yet), political/economic factors (favoring him, as of now), the reliability of the voting process (unknown), and many other factors.
In short, why should we guess? But if we have to, I’m going to bet on the “sleeper”-and against the “mainstream” candidates who are putting me, and many others, to sleep.
Pull the plug? He’s in it for the long haul, his supporters made sure of that when they raised $18M this quarter. Even Rudy doesn’t have that kind of money!
Ron Paul should threaten to run as an independant. Basically saying “If I don’t get the nomination, then republicans lose in 08″
Not like it matters anyway. Either party will do whatever the hell they feel like once they get into office. They are all liars. Except for Ron Paul.
Jesus Weldon – look what you gone and did. Every single article on the web about Paul I’ve seen that allows comments produces exactly the same results: The Ron Paul Web Response Team and their Email Talking Points. Eerie how identical they all are, kind of like Pod People. Creepy, really.
I think you hit it right on the head when you mentioned “LaRouchites.” The cult-like behavior is textbook. You could have thrown in Scientologists, too. Fits right in with the Mormons, creationists, actors, racists, and transvestites (McCain is actually the odd man out here, being more or less normal, albeit not totally sane).
All this fits perfectly with your theme – the utterly bizarre nature of the Republican field – and what ties it all up in a neat little straitjacket is simply the best photo of Giuliani I’ve ever seen. That one simply must be spammed out around the world. I mean, can you imagine a Giuliani regime having to contend with that picture for four years, in every country in the world? It would be almost worth having him as president to watch the spectacle repeated all the time everywhere. How would he be able to bomb anybody? Pilots and soldiers would look at that picture and start laughing.
If Ron Paul fails to win the nomination, then I see one of three things happening.
1. If a pro-war candidate is elected for both the democratic (IE Hillary) and republican (The rest of the GOP Candidates) parties then Ron Paul will run as a third party, possibly on the libertarian/constitutionalist/independent/unity ticket.
2. If a clearly Pro-Peace candidate wins the democratic nomination, then Ron Paul may support him. This mainly applies to Obama. (I think Ron Paul may have once said he used to be an Obama supporter until he [Ron Paul] decided to run.) So I wouldn’t be shocked if Ron Paul crossed party lines and supported a democrat, besides the majority of the GOP treats him like he’s radioactive. So in my opinion it’s the GOP’s own fault for not trying to bring Paul and his supporters under the GOP tent and it will be their fault when the GOP loses the White House.
3. Finally after the elections, if not chosen as the leader of the GOP and not elected President after an independent run. Ron Paul will try to hold his congressional seat and continue to Vote No on everything he deems unconstitutional.
I believe that the most likely thing to happen will be for Ron Paul to lose the GOP nomination, Obama to get chosen as the Democratic Nominee, and then Ron Paul to say he supports Obama. This would also be my preferred course of action. (With Ron Paul as Vice President of course)
Hey, Monty. I’m pretty impressed, actually; the atmosphere reminds me of 1968, with that sense that something’s badly broken and the yearning for someone who can fix it. I find myself wishing I didn’t disagree with Paul on virtually everything except leaving Iraq, so I could get in on the buzz.
Most of the responses are coming by way of Google News, I think–the post was in the first page of results for “ron paul” for quite a while, and I think the Rudy pic is sort of an eye catcher when you’re scanning down the results. That and “freak show” in the headline.
As someone else has said, if Ron Paul doesn’t get the Republican nomination, it doesn’t matter if he runs as an Independent or not. He will get my (write-in) vote.
“Will he attempt a third-party run, or use the money to influence the GOP platform? What do you think?”
Why ask anyone other than Ron Paul this question? Oh, that’s right, he’s only answered it 1000 times now.
I have a question for you: How many times DOES he have to answer this question before you stop asking it?
I know you won’t respond, but it needed to be asked of you.
Thanks for the article.
Weldon, I think you are right – there are ALOT of similarities to 1968 and the Goldwater ‘buzz’… but it’s deeper, stronger, imagine the passion and emotion of the 60′s hippies combined with the rational, logical economics of Hayek, Rothbard, and Friedman. It’s a left jab with an uppercut right behind… and it’s a movement which has had enough time to congeal for over 30 years waiting for a leader. Ron Paul is just a man, but he carries a huge stick – the message of freedom. Look at the way he handled Neil Cavuto (YouTube it) – Paul took his head and handed it back to him with a smile… so well played.
Can you point(link) to where you have detailed your reasons for disagreeing with Paul on ‘virtually everything except leaving Iraq’? I would be interested to see your views. Thanks!
I just wonder about this: what will the correlation be between straw poll results and primary results? It seems to me that telephone polling is a flawed system in that it is not truly representative of a population. However, the same can probably be said to be true of straw polls. But my point is this: so many RP supporters have turned out in mass for straw polls, while supporters of other candidates have not. If this trend continues, then I think it is plausible that RP could do much better than polls indicate.
The Democratic and Republican parties are both run by Neo-Nazis. There is no difference between them. Their goal is to create an American empire and exterminate as many Muslims as possible. I consider myself a liberal democrat, but I will gladly vote for Ron Paul, even though I may disagree with some of his ideas. Unfortunately, the government will never allow him to gain the Republican Party nomination. My suggestion to him is that he run as an independent candidate and pick an anti-war democrat as his running mate. An anti-war fusion ticket would easily beat the government parties.
NEVER AGAIN 2007
LPM, I could somewhat reasonably be described as a tax’n'spend big government liberal, although I’m considerably to the left of most self-described liberals these days. There are some specific policy areas where our views coincide, but the difference in how we view the role of governments is so fundamental that I could never vote for the guy. If you look around the site, you can probably find some illustrative stories.
actually, the number is 68%. 68% of “likely republican voters” think we should stay in Iraq (as of July). “likely republican voters” means people who:
-maintained GOP party affiliation in 2004 and 2006
-were active enough in their party to attend the primary in 2004 (a year when bush did not face a significant primary challenger)
-own a land line telephone
-live at their registered voting address
We can extrapolate a profile for these people based on this information:
- must be over 22 years old
-must be strong supporters of bush policy pre-2004
-must be at least active supporters of bush policy pre-2006
-must not be current college students away from home
Paul’s support is very strong among the young/college vote (unreliable though it may be), but none of those people would get polled, being away from home or operating on cell phones. He is popular with the civil rights vote, which would not get polled either. Note also the anti-war vote, which would not have made the cut, an the disenfranchised vote, which would not have been included.
Actually, polls of “likely republican voters” in this definition is a remarkably good way to MISS all of Paul’s core support groups, and hit all the people who would support more of the same.
I believe telephone polls have understated Paul’s support by a significant amount. We can probably get more accurate results even from the phone-in polls (Paul in the lead), the straw polls (Paul by a good margin) or as a last resort, the Internet polls (Paul by the biggest landslide in electoral history LOL).
But in the end, the whole race is up for grabs at this point.
Campbell, thanks for the polling info. I didn’t know that Republican support for the occupation had eroded so much.
2008 IS THE BIG PLAY for Israel’s total control of the world. They have the media, they have the Congress, they have the candidates lined up. The plan is to use all the USA’s military and economic resources to take over the Middle-East, and from this “greater-Israel” control the oil resources and finances, and create a world police-state that the Zionists control. THE ZIONISTS ARE A REFINEMENT OF THE BOLSHEVIKS OF 1917. You may expect no better treatment than the 20 million dead Russians and Ukrainians of that era.
Don’t you worry, though, John: we’ll still let people like you post crap like that. Keeps you off the streets and out of our kinky hair.
When 80% of Dr. Ron Paul’s supporters turn out at the primaries I think he will surprise alot of people; just as he has with his extraordinary grass roots fund-raising. I for one have started to pay attention to this man. I am going to register Republican and vote for this man.
Hey Dr. Paul Supporters,
Have you noticed these cult like bloggers like “Montfort” who rush to Ron Paul blogs where they allow comments to be the first one to say,
“Every single article on the web about Paul I’ve seen that allows comments produces exactly the same results: The Ron Paul Web Response Team and their Email Talking Points. Eerie how identical they all are, kind of like Pod People. Creepy, really.”
What is creepy is that people like this troll articles that apparently don’t interest them and rush to make comments like this. If you notice almost every article about Dr. Paul has this same post.
They never talk about what or who they believe in, they are just here to make negative comments. I feel sorry for you Monfort.
20 million? Whats 20 million these days? The Fed reserve prints that about every hour.
These polls that the media lives by are a disgrace! Read at the bottom in fine print: 410 likely republican voters were polled etc. then the media takes this as fact , my god what has the media come to when they say “low” in the polls? Who are these people that they are polling? Not the millions who’ve switched parties, or the other millions who’ve switched to independent obviously. These are hand picked from the Bush pool. Wake up and smell the fascism America.
I was a bit hesitant to follow the link here, seeing the headline. I was half expecting it to be referring to Paul supporters as “freaks”, as many in the media like to do.
Instead, you have hit the nail on the head. Paul has the one-two punch of being honest and right about the issues (and has been consistently so), and the ONLY one who is honest and right about the issues. The major political public opinion polls look MIGHTY suspicious. Something’s very fishy.. and it aint fish. :)
Republican or Independent, Ron Paul is going to win.