The Bush administration has released a declassified excerpt (Adobe Acrobat file) from a National Intelligence Estimate blaming Iraq for increased terrorism. Presumably, this is the upbeat portion of the report. One has to wonder what on earth the depressing part says.

Among the highlights are judgements that “the global jihadist movement—which includes al-Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts;” that “activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion;” that “the Iraq ‘jihad’ [and] pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims [are] fueling the spread of the jihadist movement;” and that”[t]he increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qa’ida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations.”

Responding to questions about the NIE yesterday, the White House said that reports based on leaks about the document distorted the overall thrust of it. In fact, the declassified portion serves only to reinforce the impression conveyed by the government sources who spoke with reporters at the New York Times and Washington Post: the US invasion and occupation of Iraq has aided terrorist recruiting efforts by increasing anti-US sentiment and, as the CIA predicted last year, the fighting in Iraq is providing terrorists fighting there the opportunity to hone their skills for export to other parts of the world.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that in the unlikely event the US succeeds in transforming Iraq into a beacon of democracy, jihadists world-wide will be demoralized and their street cred eroded. Bush will use the released excerpts to continue arguing that Iraq is the central front in the War on Terra®, saying that the judgements in the NIE show that we can’t bail on Iraq without handing terrorists a major victory. He will also continue to avoid offering any hint that he has a clue about how to achieve whatever it is he hopes to achieve there.

The declassified release includes a very creepy rhetorical flourish — throughout it, the US is referred to as “the Homeland,” which sparks unhappy memories of Fatherlands and Motherlands — and two glaring omissions — there is absolutely no mention of the home-grown Iraqi insurgency, which even the administration acknowledges is a far more potent actor in Iraq than are the imported fighters of whatever stripe and which will in the end determine whether extremists can or cannot claim Iraq as a victory, and there is no mention of the actual state of affairs in Iraq.

The likelihood is that one group of extremists or another will claim victory in Iraq no matter what happens: it’s just a question of whether it’s the extremists serving as the power brokers in the Iraqi government or the extremists fighting those extremists.

Politically, the report may be a wash. On one hand it does reinforce the no doubt accurate perception that a US withdrawal from Iraq will enhance the power and prestige of anyone who can make a reasonable claim to driving us out, and it puts pressure on Democrats and other opponents of a continued occupation to come up with a more detailed alternative than simply going away.

On the other hand, it confirms that the invasion was an enormous blunder and that the conduct of the occupation has done an enormous amount of damage to US and global security, and the White House response to it begs the question of why voters should continue to entrust the conduct of the occupation and counter-terrorism in general to people who have clearly, in the consensus judgement of every US intelligence agency, placed the country at greater risk than we were in five years ago.

Here’s what Fran Townsend, the Assistant to the president for Fatherland Security, had to say on the subject a short time ago.

Now in the next section — this is the Iraq section in the key judgments, where the key judgments note, “Perceived jihadist success would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.” The key judgments goes on to say that “the Iraq conflict has become a cause célèbre for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of U.S. involvement in the Muslim world, and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement.” It then says, “Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves and be perceived to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.”

This really underscores the President’s point about the importance of our winning in Iraq. On September 5th, the President, in his speech, said, “Iraq is not a distraction from their war on America, it is the central battlefield, where the outcome of this struggle will be decided.” We’ve heard the President say that repeatedly. Also, in the National Security Strategy for Combating Terrorism, on page four, in the challenges section, we make the point that the ongoing fight for freedom in Iraq has been twisted by terrorist propaganda as a rallying cry.

And then later on in the strategy we make the point — in the section on safe havens, on page 16 — that terrorists see Iraq as the central front in the fight against the United States, and this is why, in helping the Afghan and Iraqi peoples forge effective democracies is vital.

The obvious question for reporters to ask is how the administration plans to reverse the profoundly negative impact, described in concise terms in the declassified release, the invasion and occupation of Iraq has had and continues to have on our and the world’s security. And when Bush says, as he did earlier today, that terrorists and terrorism existed long before he invaded Iraq, they might want to ask him how that justifies making the problem worse.

Note: as of now, transcriptions of the president’s and Townsend’s remarks are not posted on the White House web site. They should be up shortly, and you’ll be able to find them here.

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