US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad told the Los Angeles Times in a story published today that the invasion of Iraq opened a “Pandora’s Box” requiring a continuing strong US troop presence.

At the same time, Don Rumsfeld was telling reporters at a Pentagon briefing that “There’s always been a potential for a civil war. That country was held together through a repressive regime that put hundreds of thousands of human beings into mass graves.”

A quick search of Pentagon press briefing archives failed to unearth any prescient Rumsfeldianisms from 2002 or 2003 regarding the possibility of an Iraqi civil war erupting in consequence of a US invasion. My goodness! But critics of the invasion raised the possibility ad nauseam in the runup to the invasion. Gracious!

Sunday, Joint Chiefs chairman Peter Pace, speaking from Iraq, said that things in Iraq are “going very, very well, from everything you look at.”

It’s hard to tell whether Pace misplaced his script or just wants to get the hell out while he still has an Army. With the spring rotation coming up, he has to decide whether to recommend that the US bolster, maintain or draw down troop levels, and he has to decide whether to do so on a political basis or a practical one.

Khalilzad is weighing in on that decision.

Without touching on the issue of troop reduction, Khalilzad described a highly combustible atmosphere in Iraq that dates at least to the polarizing Dec. 15 legislative elections, which handed Shiites a dominant role in the government

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In any case, Khalilzad said the U.S. has little choice but to maintain a strong presence in Iraq — or risk a regional conflict in which Arabs side with Sunnis and Iranians back Shiites, in what could be a more encompassing version of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, which left more than 1 million dead.

He has a strange way of not touching on troop levels, doesn’t he? But reporters know best.

To review: it was always apparent that the Shiites would dominate any elected government because 60% of Iraqis are Shiites. The administration knew this, which is why they attempted to install a puppet government and prevent direct elections. It was always apparent that the Shiites held a grudge against the Baathists. That’s why the uprising in the wake of the first Gulf War featured a wave of reprisal killings. And it was always apparent that the Baathists would recall that the last time Shiites took power, they killed a bunch of Baathists. The administration knew that too. They just chose to ignore it, and now they’re invoking Rodney King.

Meanwhile, Rumsfeld accused Iran of infiltrating elements of their Republican Guards into Iraq, and reiterated the accusation that Iran is supplying Shia groups with British-designed roadside bombs. And his pals Dick Cheney and John Bolton belched dire warnings about the consequences of Iran’s nuclear program maneuverings. Bolton chose the annual conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), which was attended by a large number of US senators and representatives, to deliver his remarks. Other speeches were off the record or closed to reporters.

Luncheon speeches by former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and former Virginia governor Mark Warner (D) were declared off the record. At another speech yesterday by Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman, reporters were turned away at the door; an AIPAC spokeswoman went through the room making sure no journalists had infiltrated.

Surely Ken Mehlman has nothing to hide. And what could potential Democratic presidential candidate Warner be telling AIPAC that he doesn’t want voters to hear?

To review (again): John Negroponte and Zalmay Khalilzad are saying that things in Iraq are way bad. Negroponte and Rumsfeld are accusing Iran of directly intervening in Iraq. Cheney and Bolton are threatening Iran with a world of hurt. And the Joint Chiefs chairman wants out.

There will be a military draft in this country within the next 18 months. You heard it here first. And second. And third …

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